Whenever we witness an act of targeted violence in America — a school shooting, workplace attack or public mass casualty event — the same questions always get asked: “Why didn’t anyone stop this?” “How could this have happened?”
The reality? In most cases, the warning signs were there. While the victims may have been caught by surprise, someone (a friend, family member, coworker or teacher) likely saw troubling behavior and thought, “This seems off.”
The problem isn’t that nobody noticed; it’s that nobody acted.
Behavioral threat assessment and management (BTAM) is a systematic process that bridges the gap between awareness and action. BTAM is a proactive, evidence-based discipline that identifies, assesses and mitigates threats before they escalate into violence.
This article, the first in a series on the topic, explores what BTAM is and why it’s vital. Future articles will discuss how BTAM teams are constituted, and the process of reporting and evaluating threats, taking action and eventual follow-up. Let’s start by addressing why BTAM is critical in today’s complex and interconnected world.
What is BTAM?
According to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), “Behavioral threat assessment and management is a systematic, fact-based process designed to help safety stakeholders identify threats and prevent acts of targeted violence.” The DHS highlights these key aspects:
- BTAM enables community stakeholders to recognize and react to patterns of behavior that would reasonably raise concern, assessing whether an individual may be on a path toward violence.
- BTAM involves creating a response plan to address and reduce threats of violence, using a multidisciplinary team and customized interventions.
- BTAM is not predictive, does not involve profiling and does not impose punitive measures.
BTAM is intended to prevent targeted violence, which refers to premeditated acts directed at specific individuals, groups or locations. Examples of the kind of violent events BTAM seeks to prevent include:
- School violence: Threats or attacks against students, teachers or staff, such as school shootings or physical assaults.
- Workplace violence: Incidents involving threats or harm to employees, employers or clients, including physical attacks or acts of intimidation in professional settings.
- Mass violence: Planned acts aimed at harming multiple people in public spaces, such as shootings in malls, concerts or community gatherings.
- Stalking and intimate partner violence: Situations where one person threatens or harms another in the context of a personal or romantic relationship (real or imagined), potentially escalating to violence.
- Terrorism: Threats or acts of violence motivated by ideological, political or religious beliefs, targeting groups, institutions or the public.
- Community violence: Incidents of planned or retaliatory violence within a residential or local community setting.
- Cyber threats leading to physical violence: Online behaviors, such as harassment, doxing or specific threats that suggest the potential for real-world harm.
- Violence in healthcare or public services: Threats or assaults directed at healthcare workers, first responders or public officials.
By focusing on prevention, BTAM reduces the likelihood of violent outcomes, helping to ensure the safety of individuals and communities.
In this episode of the Policing Matters podcast, host Jim Dudley speaks with Dr. Jack Rozel, a Professor of Psychiatry and Adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Pittsburgh, about how law enforcement, behavioral health sciences professionals and the community can work together to identify those at risk of committing acts of mass violence.
BTAM is not pre-crime
Remember the movie “Minority Report,” where half-naked psychic-savants in a swimming pool made chillingly accurate predictions about people who were about to commit violent crimes, allowing futuristic police officers to hunt down these “pre-criminals” and stop their (as yet unrealized) heinous acts? That’s exactly what BTAM isn’t.
It doesn’t take a psychic to listen to and observe a person in distress and take them at their word. While members of law enforcement have a moral obligation to protect and uphold constitutional safeguards, we also have an ethical duty to use mechanisms within the law to prevent harm.
“He just snapped”
Many people believe the myth that most acts of violence are random or impulsive. Phrases like, “He just snapped” or “Nobody could have predicted this” often follow violent events, reinforcing a narrative of inevitability. But this couldn’t be further from the truth.
Targeted violence rarely happens spontaneously. Rather, it’s usually the result of a deliberate, calculated process, often called the pathway to violence:
- Grievance: The person feels wronged, humiliated or mistreated — regardless of whether the facts behind this feeling are real or merely perceived.
- Ideation: He begins fantasizing about violence as a way to address the grievance.
- Planning: He gathers resources, researches methods and decides how and when to act.
- Preparation: He may test equipment, rehearse actions (even conducting a so-called “dry run”), or scout locations.
- Execution: He commits the act of violence.
I use the pronoun he very intentionally, here. The overwhelming majority of cases I’ve been a part of have involved young (or younger) men. The reasons for this are many and varied, and outside the scope of this discussion.
Understanding this pathway is essential because it shows violence is preventable. The earlier authorities can intervene — particularly during the grievance or ideation stages — the more effectively we can disrupt this progression.
| RELATED: Building a culture of prevention: Focusing on behavioral and mental health interventions in schools
The cost of inaction
Failing to act on warning signs doesn’t just risk lives; it has a ripple effect on communities. Survivors of violence — whether directly or indirectly involved— often face lasting psychological and emotional trauma. Witnesses and responders grapple with guilt, and communities experience fear and mistrust. Proactively addressing threats through BTAM helps save lives, reduce trauma and foster safer environments where people feel empowered to report concerns.
In today’s world, the stakes are higher than ever. With the rise of social media, grievances are often amplified and echoed, creating echo chambers that reinforce harmful ideologies. People who may have once suffered in isolation now have access to communities that normalize or encourage violent behavior. BTAM helps counteract this by identifying concerning behaviors early, providing interventions that redirect individuals onto healthier paths, reducing the risk to the public.
Behavioral threat assessment and management is not a crystal ball, but more like a chessboard. When a troubled person moves a pawn on the pathway toward violence, the authorities move a rook or a knight to guard the other pieces. Each move is rule-based, calculated to provide maximum protection to the community while ensuring the team and its response continue to stay one step ahead of the person of concern. As in chess, any piece — from a pawn to a king — can end the game. It’s critically important in these efforts to treat everyone like they’re capable of doing what they’re threatening to do. We owe it to our communities to take people at their word.
